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This evening lecture, held at Cardiff University, was presented by RDM|RSC network member Andrew Potter, Reader at the University. Andrew presented results of work that he had done through the network, describing the data that exists that allows us to get a picture of freight flows in our regions, especially rail freight flows – and what that tells us about the resilience of transport operations in the region as a whole.
The data show that rail freight in the region is currently dominated by two commodities – coal and steel. Using data collected from www.realtimetrains.co.uk for one week, and from a variety of secondary data, Andrew was able to paint a picture of flows through the region, and their sources and destinations in other parts of the country. This included a good deal of data about typical trains and journeys. Andrew showed that rail freight is less distance-dependent than we thought, and that the most important flows are to-from a region in the East Midlands and the South-East. Freight movements in South Wales are greater than in Bristol.
On the question of resilience, which Andrew defined as the ability of a system to withstand shocks and to recover to a positive trajectory, Andrew noted that steel is 50% of freight in South Wales, of which 80% is from Tata. When the Ravenscraig steel plant in Scotland closed in 1992 there was a 40% reduction in rail freight in Scotland, but Scotland rail recovered owing to the growth of intermodal traffic. He outlined how this might happen in South Wales in the event of a reduction in steel traffic, noting issues such as the need for suitable train paths, routing around London, and potential conflicts with the South-Wales Metro.
In a lively question and answer session the following points were noted:
- On the importance of electrification the difficulty is that not all sidings will be electrified and that many train routes go outside electrified regions. The DRS Class 88 locomotive, with a 1000hp diesel for ‘the last mile’ will address the former. It was noted that the plans for Bromsgrove include provision for a banker to help with the climb up Lickey Bank.
- Electrification will, it is hoped, allow the W10 loading gauge, which allows a 9’6” container on a normal flat wagon, to be available more widely.
- There are a number of capacity bottlenecks such as Queen Street.
- A big challenge from industrial change will be rolling stock. Stock built for coal will not be suitable for intermodal, and incentives to invest in new stick will be key.
- In a discussion of the implications of Just-In-Time (JIT) delivery it was noted that steel used to be delivered by rail to distribution centres in the West Midlands, from where it was taken to automotive plants by road for JIT delivery. This point led on to the importance of transhipment points and this is where public policy is important.
- Again on the subject of JIT, factories historically kept stock ‘in their yards’ – with JIT they now tend to keep it ‘on the road network’.
- It was noted that steel supply is changing with sources of supply moving from South Wales to overseas. South Wales ports all have good rail connections in this regard.
- A big issue is that some operators on the rail freight scene do not have adequate terminal facilities to keep their wagons when not required. Sidings have been sold off.
CAM, 5th December 2015